Oscar Predictions

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It’s T-minus two weeks until the Oscars and luckily, the Academy is pretty predictable.  Looking at each of the major awards and dissecting some theories about who generally wins, it’s pretty easy to guess who this year’s winners will be.  To win Best Actor, the Academy tends to vote on consistency in this category. In other words, the Oscar generally goes to the dude who has the most Best Actor and Best Supporting nominations under his belt already.

Here are just a few examples:

* Last year, Sean Penn walked away with the Best Actor Oscar for playing Harvey Milk in, uh, “Milk.” Some will say it was because of his nuanced performance as the gay San Franciscan mayor. Sure. But coincidentally, it was his fifth acting nomination, while Brad Pitt had a measly two noms. And Frank Langella, Richard Jenkins and Mickey Rourke all were on their first. Sean Penn also won in 2003 for “Mystic River” when, shocker, his outnumbered the nominations of all the other competitors in the field.

* 2007 was a particularly tough Best Actor Oscar race, with both Daniel Day-Lewis and George Clooney having four Oscar nominations to their names. However, while two of George’s nominations were in other categories (Best Director and Best Screenplay for “Good Night, and Good Luck”), all of Daniel’s were of the acting variety. He got the golden dude, for “There Will Be Blood.”

* Many people think Denzel Washington should have won Best Actor for “Malcolm X.” When he received another nod in 2002 for “Training Day,” it really just seemed like his time, even if his character didn’t get nearly as much screen time. He won anyway. Why? This was his fifth nomination while competitors Russell Crowe and Sean Penn were on three at the time, and Will Smith and Tom Wilkinson were both on nom numero uno.

So who will benefit from the most nominations boost this year? Shockingly, it’s a three-way tie: Jeff Bridges, George Clooney, and Morgan Freeman all have received five nominations in their many years on the scene. However, Mr. Freeman shocked us all this year when he confirmed that he is in fact shacking up with his 27-year-old step-granddaughter, which puts him out of the running. Since two of George’s nominations are for his behind-the-camera work, we predict that Jeff Bridges is gonna win this year.

[Filmsite, Wikipedia]


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